Thursday, June 04, 2009

Handicapping 24th Dist. Senate race


Within 24 hours of the announcement by state Sen. Rob Wonderling that he is resigning his Senate seat to take a private-sector job, Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce L. Castor Jr. and state Rep. Bob Mensch, R-147, each stated publicly they'd like to replace Wonderling.

Both already have high-profile elected positions, but a chance to serve in the state Senate is too good for either official to pass up.

There's no downside for either man to make a run for the Republican nomination in the predominantly Republican district. Castor and Mensch both have jobs to fall back on.

Castor still has two years left in his four-year term as one of three elected commissioners running one of the largest county governments in the state. Mensch won re-election last November to a second two-year term in the state House.

They don't have to quit their day job to make a run for Wonderling's 24th Senate District seat. The loser simply returns to his current position. The winner gets to move to a higher-profile office.

Castor would appear to be the bigger beneficiary because he is currently in political purgatory as the odd-man out in a power sharing agreement between renegade Republican Commissioner Jim Matthews and Democratic Commissioner Joe Hoeffel. Although Castor was the top vote-getter in the 2007 election (and basically got Matthews re-elected on his coattails), Matthews surrendered control of county government to Hoeffel rather than allow Castor to take the lead.

Although he would have the least seniority of anyone in the 50-member Senate, the Republicans have a solid 30-20 majority and can push their agenda, especially with a lame duck governor in Ed Rendell counting down the days to the end of his term.

Mensch would rather run every four years for the Legislature as a member of the Senate instead of every two years in the House. He would also like to be in the majority instead of suffering another two years in the Democratic-controlled House.

A potential Castor-Mensch showdown for the 24th Senate District seat will probably a cordial affair with both men touting their experience. Both are fiscal conservatives so don't expect any major differences on the issues. They are friends and will remain friends despite the outcome of an election.

While Mensch represents many of the same communities in the House that Wonderling has in his Senate district, I think Castor has the edge because of better name recognition throughout Montgomery County ... and beyond.

The 24th District stretches over four counties and Castor is better known as the flamboyant, two-term Montgomery County District Attorney. Castor also has more access to cash and has run larger campaigns as Montgomery County D.A. and commissioner.

And consider this scenario. Castor could win the state Senate seat in a special election this year, but make a run for higher office in 2010, say lieutenant governor, giving Mensch another shot at the 24th District Senate seat next year. Stranger things have happened.

Originally posted at TONY PHYRILLAS