Pew Survey: Incumbents Beware, especially Democrats

A new survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds widespread anti-incumbent sentiment among the American electorate.

From the survey:

The mood of America is glum. Two-thirds of the public is dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Fully nine-in-ten say that national economic conditions are only fair or poor, and nearly two-thirds describe their own finances that way -- the most since the summer of 1992.

An increasing proportion of Americans say that the war in Afghanistan is not going well, and a plurality continues to oppose the health care reform proposals in Congress.

What does this mean for the party in power, aka Democrats? Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the economy and Afghanistan in the coming year, Democrats will face a political massacre in the 2010 midterm elections.

While President Obama's approval rating hovers around 51%, Congressional incumbents are in serious trouble, according to the Pew Research Survey.

From the survey:

About half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year, while 34% say that most members of Congress should be re-elected.

Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.

Support for congressional incumbents is particularly low among political independents. Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25% would like to see most members of Congress re-elected. Both measures are near all-time lows in Pew Research surveys.

Currently, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district or lean Democratic, while 42% would vote for the Republican or lean to the GOP candidate. In August, 45% favored the Democrat in their district and 44% favored the Republican.

And then there's the "enthusiasm" factor. While the Democratic Party base is losing patience with Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid & Co., Republicans are feeling much better about their party's chances next year.

From the survey:

Fully 58% of those who plan to vote for a Republican next year say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 42% of those who plan to vote for a Democrat. More than half (56%) of independent voters who support a Republican in their district are very enthusiastic about voting; by contrast, just 32% of independents who plan to vote for a Democrat express high levels of enthusiasm.

In other words, the Republican base that stayed home in 2008 because it could not bring itself to support John McCain has realized what a mistake it was to turn the country over to Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats. Republicans (and independents) are poised to take corrective action in 2010.

Read the full survey by clicking here.

Originally posted at TONY PHYRILLAS