This assumes the U.S. recovers from the current recession, which has dragged on for 18 months and has been prolonged over the past six months by Obama's ill-advised economic policies.
From a story by Kent Hoover in the Philadelphia Business Journal:
The end of the recession is "literally just around the corner," the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's chief economist said, but there is a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another economic downturn by late 2010.On the bright side, a "double-dip" recession in 2010 will most like result in a backlash against Democrats in the midterm Congressional elections. The end of a Democratic majority in Congress would put a stop to Obama's socialist agenda for the remaining two years of his term.
Those odds may seem low, but they're actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber's Marty Regalia.
He predicted that the current economic downturn will end around September but that the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half of next year. Investment won't snap back as quickly as it usually does after a recession, Regalia said.
Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem because of the federal government's huge budget deficits and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the Federal Reserve, he said. If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy begins to recover, higher interest rates could choke off improvement in the housing market and business investment, he said.
"The economy has got to be running on its own by the middle of next year," Regalia said.
Almost every major inflationary period in U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt levels, he noted.
Read the full story, "Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010," at the Philadelphia Business Journal's Web site.
Originally posted at TONY PHYRILLAS
